Lesson51 Predicting the future
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课文
Predicting the future is notoriously difficult.
众所周知，预测未来是非常困难的。
Who could have imagined, in the mid 1970s, for example, that by the end of the 20th century, computers would be as common in people's homes as TV sets?
举个例子吧，在20世纪70年代中叶又有谁能想得到在20世纪末的时候，家庭用的计算机会像电视机一样普遍?
In the 1970s, computers were common enough, but only in big business, government departments and large organizations.
在70年代，计算机已经相当普及了，但只用在大公司，政府部门和大的组织之中，
These were the so-called mainframe machines.
它们被称为主机。
Mainframe computers were very large indeed often occupying whole air-conditioned rooms, employing full-time technicians and run on specially-written software.
计算机主机确实很大，常常占据了装有空调的多间房间，雇用专职的技师，而且得用专门编写的软件才能运行。
Though these large machines still exist, many of their functions have been taken over by small powerful personal computers, commonly known as PCs.
虽然这种大计算机仍然存在，但它们的许多功能已被体积小但功能齐全的个人电脑--即我们常说的PC机--所代替了。
In 1975, a primitive machine called the Altair, was launched in the USA.
1975年，美国推出了一台被称为“牛郎星”的原始机型。
It can properly be described as the first 'home computer' and it pointed the way to the future.
严格地说起来，它可以被称为第一台“家用电脑”，而且它也指了今后的方向。
This was followed, at the end of the 1970s, by a machine called an Apple.
70年代末，在牛郎星之后又出现了一种被称为“苹果”的机型。
In the early 1980s, the computer giant, IBM produced the world's first Personal Computer.
80年代初，计算机行业的王牌公司美国国际商用机器公司（IBM）生产出了世界上第一台个人电脑。
This ran on an 'operating system' called DOS, produced by a then small company named Microsoft.
这种电脑采用了一种被称为磁盘操作系统（DOS）的工作程序，而这种程序是由当时规模不大的微软公司生产的。
The IBM Personal Computer was widely copied.
IBM的个人电脑被大规模地模仿。
From those humble beginnings, we have seen the development of the user-friendly home computers and multimedia machines which are in common use today.
从那些简陋的初级阶段，我们看到了现在都已普及的、使用简便的家用电脑和多媒体的微机的发展。
Considering how recent these developments are, it is even more remarkable that as long ago as the 1960s, an Englishman, Leon Bagrit, was able to predict some of the uses of computers which we know today.
想一想这些发展的时间多么短，就更觉得英国人莱昂.巴格瑞特有着非凡的能力。他在60年代就能预言我们今天知道的计算机的一些用途。
Bagrit dismissed the idea that computers would learn to 'think' for themselves and would 'rule the world', which people liked to believe in those days.
巴格瑞特根本不接受计算机可以学会自己去“思考”和计算可以“统治世界”这种想法，而这种想法是当时的人们都愿意相信的。
Bagrit foresaw a time when computers would be small enough to hold in the hand, when they would be capable of providing information about traffic jams and suggesting alternative routes, when they would be used in hospitals to help doctors to diagnose illnesses, when they would relieve office workers and accountants of dull, repetitive clerical work.
巴格瑞特预示有一天计算机可以小到拿在手上，计算机可以提供交通堵塞的信息并建议可替换的路线， 计算机可以帮助医生诊断病情。计算机可以使办公室人员和会计免除那些枯燥、重复的劳动。
All these computer uses have become commonplace.
计算机的所有这些功能现在都变得很平常。
Of course, Leon Bagrit couldn't possibly have foreseen the development of the Internet, the worldwide system that enables us to communicate instantly with anyone in any part of the world by using computers linked to telephone networks.
当然了，莱昂.巴格瑞特根本没有可能预测到国际交互网--就是把计算机连结到电话线路上，以便和世界上任何一个地方的人立即进行联系的一个世界范围的通讯系统--的发展。
Nor could he have foreseen how we could use the Internet to obtain information on every known subject, so we can read it on a screen in our homes and even print it as well if we want to.
他也无法预测到我们可以利用国际交互网获取有关任何已知专题的信息，以便在家里的屏幕上阅读，如果愿意的话甚至可以将其打印出来。
Computers have become smaller and smaller, more and more powerful and cheaper and cheaper.
计算机已经变得体积越来越小，功能越来越多，价格越来越低，
This is what makes Leon Bagrit's predictions particularly remarkable.
这就是莱昂.巴格瑞特的预测非凡的地方。
If he, or someone like him, were alive today, he might be able to tell us what to expect in the next 50 years.
如果他或是像他的什么人今天还活着的话，他大概可以告诉我们下一个50年后会发生什么事情。
词汇讲解
notoriously [nəʊ'tɔ:rɪəslɪ] adv. 臭名昭著地，（坏事）众所周知地
【同根词】
notorious = infamous adj. 英文解释：famous or well-known for something bad 臭名昭著的，（坏事）众所周知的
a notorious criminal / area / bend in the road
be notorious for … 因为…而臭名昭著的
The city is notorious for its bumper-to-bumper traffic.
notoriously
Predicting the future is notoriously difficult.
The local bus service is notoriously unreliable.
notoriety n.恶名；坏名声
gain / achieve notoriety for / as … 因为/作为…而臭名昭著的
She achieved notoriety for her affair with the senator.
He gained a certain notoriety as a gambler.
【扩展】【复习】表达“著名的”：
well-known
famous
noted
notable
eminent
celebrated
【扩展】【复习】表达“不知名的”：
renowned unknown
little-known
obscure
technician [tek'nɪʃn] n. 技术员，技师
technician n. 英文解释：someone whose job is to check equipment or machines and make sure that they are working properly 技术员，技师
a laboratory technician
a hospital technician
【词根】
“-ian” = specialist 专家、专业人士
librarian 图书馆馆长；图书管理员
historian 史学工作者；历史学家
musician 音乐家；作曲家；乐师
electrician 电工；电器技师
mathematician 数学家
physician 医师；（尤指）内科医生
pediatrician 儿科医生；儿科专家
user-friendly ['ju:zə'frendli:] adj. 易用的，易理解的，易操作的
user-friendly adj. 英文解释：easy to use, understand, or operate 易用的，易理解的，易操作的
a user-friendly interface / printer
Computer programs have become more user-friendly.
【词根】
-friendly 含义1. suitable for particular people to use 易用的
a user-friendly computer program
a family-friendly restaurant
a customer-friendly shopping mall
customer-friendly banking facilities
-friendly 含义2. not harmful 无害的
environment-friendly products
ozone-friendly fridges
alternative [ɔ:l'tɜ:nətɪv] adj. 另外的，其他的，别的
alternative adj. （只作定语）英文解释：different from something else and able to be used instead of it 另外的，其他的，别的
an alternative plan / route / way
alternative approaches to learning
Have you any alternative suggestions?
alternative n. 其他的选择
Is there a viable alternative to (可行的选择)the present system?
If payment is not received within five days, legal action will be our only alternative (唯一的选择).
I had no alternative but to report him to the police. （别不选择，只能…）
【同根词】
alternate adj. 含义1.（常作定语）(of two things) happening or following one after the other 交替的，轮流的
alternate blue and red stripes
alternate triumph and despair
Private cars are banned from the city on alternate days.
alternate adj. 含义2. = alternative（只作定语）其他的，另外的，别的
We can't get home tonight, because there are no alternate flights.
I suggest you have an alternate plan in case you are sick on that day.
relieve [rɪ'li:v] v. 减轻，缓解或解除（痛苦，问题等）
Drugs helped to relieve the pain.
Reading helped to relieve the boredom while he was ill.
The project is designed to relieve traffic congestion on the main routes into the city.
relieve sb. of sth. 英文解释：to help sb. by taking sth. heavy or difficult from them 替某人做某事，使某人免于……
Let me relieve you of some of your bags.
The new secretary will relieve us of some of the paperwork.
…, when they(computers) would relieve office workers and accountants of dull, repetitive clerical work.
【同根词】
relief n. 宽慰，痛苦的缓解或解脱
find a temporary relief 找到了临时解脱
permanent relief 永久解脱
to my great relief 大为宽心的
give immediate relief from pain 立刻缓解痛苦
What a relief it was when the boulders suddenly disappeared, giving way to a stretch of plain where the only obstacles were clumps of bushes.
课文讲解
（第一段）
Predicting the future is notoriously difficult.
知识点（1）【课文仿写】
造句：众所周知，缓解 (relieve) 人口过剩问题非常困难。
Relieving the problem of overpopulation is notoriously difficult.
造句：众所周知，改掉 (give up) 一个根深蒂固的 (deep-seated) 坏习惯非常困难。
Giving up a deep-seated bad habit is notoriously difficult.
造句：众所周知，北京的交通拥堵问题非常严重。
The traffic congestion in Beijing is notoriously serious.
Who could have imagined, in the mid 1970s, for example, that by the end of the 20th century, computers would be as common in people's homes as TV sets?
语法分析:
Who could have imagined, in the mid 1970s（插入语）, for example（插入语）, that（that… 宾语从句） by the end of the 20th century（时间状语）, computers would be as common in people's homes as TV sets?
知识点（1）
could have done 英文解释：used to say that something was a possibility in the past, but did not actually happen 有可能会发生，但是并没有真的发生
I could have been killed.
He could have escaped, but he chose to stand and fight.
知识点（2）
mid adj.中央的，中间的，中部的
from mid July to mid August
mid-morning coffee
Mid-Autumn Festival
a young woman in her mid-twenties
midsummer / midwinter
on Midsummer Eve
in the early 1970s 早期
in the mid 1970s 中期
in the late 1970s 晚期
知识点（3）【课文仿写】
造句：比方说，有谁能在 20 世纪 90 年代中期想象到，仅仅十年 (a mere decade) 之后，手机在中国和手表一样常见？
Who could have imagined, in the mid 1990s, for example, that after a mere decade, mobile phones would be as common in China as watches?
In the 1970s, computers were common enough, but only in big business, government departments and large organizations.
知识点（1）
business [C] 公司
They don't know how to run a business.
The company began as a small family business.
Owners of small businesses will be hit hardest by these tax changes.
big business n. [U] large and powerful companies in general （固定搭配，总称）大公司
Does big business have more control over our everyday lives than our elected governments?
These were the so-called mainframe machines.
知识点（1）Lesson18
so-called adj. 含义1. commonly called 所谓的（通常被称为的）
They've found the flight recorder, the so-called black box.
so-called adj. 含义2. incorrectly called 所谓的（错误地被称为的）
His so-called friends betrayed him.
知识点（2）
mainframe n. 英文解释：a large powerful computer that can work very fast and that a lot of people can use at the same time 主机，大型机
Mainframe computers were very large indeed often occupying whole air-conditioned rooms, employing full-time technicians and run on specially-written software.
语法分析:
Mainframe computers were very large indeed, often occupying whole air-conditioned rooms（非谓语）, employing full-time technicians（非谓语） and run（过去分词） on specially-written software（非谓语）.
知识点（1）
indeed adv. 英文解释：used with ‘very’ and an adjective or adverb to emphasize a statement or description 的确，确实
Most of the essays were very good indeed.
Thank you very much indeed.
知识点（2）
air-conditioned adj. 装空调的
air conditioner n. 空调
知识点（3）
run v. 英文解释：if you run a machine or engine, you make it operate 操作，使机器运转
I often run the washing machine more than once a day.
Though these large machines still exist, many of their functions have been taken over by small powerful personal computers, commonly known as PCs.
语法分析:
Though these large machines still exist（让步状语从句）, many of their functions have been taken over by small powerful personal computers, commonly known as PCs（后置定语,修饰personal computers）.
知识点（1）
take over sth. 接管……，代替……
Military leaders took over the government.
Computers can thus be built to take over almost any job where a series of actions are repeated over and over again.
知识点（2）Lesson14
be known as … 被称为……
He soon made a name for himself and came to be known to the Italians as Giovanni Acuto.
be commonly known as … 常被称为……
The disease is commonly known as Mad Cow Disease.
（第二段）
In 1975, a primitive machine called the Altair, was launched in the USA.
知识点（1）
primitive adj. 含义1：of or at an early stage of social development 原始的，上古的
primitive culture（文化） / customs（习俗） / tribes（部落） 原始的…
primitive adj. 含义2：simple and not modern 简单的，简陋的
The local hospital care is primitive and unreliable.
知识点（2）Lesson43
launch v. 含义2：to make a new product, book etc available for sale for the first time 推出新产品，新书等
The company hopes to launch the new drug by next October.
The new model will be launched in July.
He is going to launch his latest novel.
launch v. 含义1：t使船下水
Shortly after it was launched, the pie committee went to a local inn to celebrate.
It can properly be described as the first 'home computer' and it pointed the way to the future.
知识点（1）Lesson17
describe … as … 把…描述成 …
He described it as 'a very agreeable situation located within two small hills in the midst of which flowed a great river.'
The old lady thought he was a fussy creature, but since the porter agreed with him, she rang up her daughter and asked for her help in what she described as a little spot of bother.
知识点（2）
point the way (to …) v. 英文解释：to show how something could change or develop successfully 指明了（…… 的）方向
It can properly be described as the first 'home computer' and it pointed the way to the future.
Recent medical discoveries are already pointing the way to more efficient vaccines.
This was followed, at the end of the 1970s, by a machine called an Apple.
语法分析:
This was followed, at the end of the 1970s（插入语，次要信息）, by a machine called an Apple（重要信息）.
In the early 1980s, the computer giant, IBM produced the world's first Personal Computer.
知识点（1）
giant n. 英文解释：a very large and powerful organization 特大机构，大公司，巨头
the multinational oil giants
Japanese electronics giant Sony
This ran on an 'operating system' called DOS, produced by a then small company named Microsoft.
知识点（1）
DOS Disk Operating System 英文解释： the basic software in a computer that makes it work and allows you to use a program. It is usually used only in older computers. 磁盘操作系统
The IBM Personal Computer was widely copied.
知识点（1）
copy = imitate v. 英文解释：to behave or do sth. in the same way as sb. else 模仿
She copies everything her sister does.
Their tactics have been copied by other terrorists.
From those humble beginnings, we have seen the development of the user-friendly home computers and multimedia machines which are in common use today.
语法分析:
From those humble beginnings（介词短语做状语）, we have seen the development of the user-friendly home computers and multimedia machines which are in common use today（定语从句）.
知识点（1）
humble adj. 含义1. 谦虚的
He was a genuinely humble man.
humble adj. 含义2. 地 位 卑 微 的 men of humble birth
a humble occupation
humble adj. 含义3. simple and with only basic equipment or features 简单的，简陋的
They lived in a humble two-roomed apartment.
知识点（2）
be in use 英文解释：a machine, place etc. that is in use is being used（机器，场所等）在使用，得到使用
Electric vehicles built in 1920 were still in use in the 1950s.
I'll be glad to see the building in use again.
be in common use 广泛使用
be in general use 广泛使用
From those humble beginnings, we have seen the development of the user-friendly home computers and multimedia machines which are in common use today.
So was born the echo-sounding apparatus, now in general use in ships.
（第三段）
Considering how recent these developments are, it is even more remarkable that as long ago as the 1960s, an Englishman, Leon Bagrit, was able to predict some of the uses of computers which we know today.
语法分析:
Considering（介词短语做状语） how recent these developments are（宾语从句）, it（形式主语） is even more remarkable that（that...主语从句） as long ago as the 1960s（时间状语）, an Englishman, Leon Bagrit, was able to predict some of the uses of computers which we know today（定语从句）.
知识点（1）Lesson19
considering prep. & conj. 英文解释：in view of (the fact that); taking into consideration 考虑到……，鉴于……
Considering (prep.) the amount she paid, he was dear in more ways than one!
Considering (conj.) (that) he's only just started, he knows quite a lot about it.
知识点（2）Lesson14
as long ago as … 早在……就……
= as early as …
As long ago as the fourteenth century, an Englishman, Sir John Hawkwood, made the remarkable discovery that people would rather pay large sums of money than have their life work destroyed by gangsters.
【辨析】
as long as … 含义1. 长达……
It can take as long as eight days to rig up rope ladders and to establish supply bases before a descent can be made into a very deep cave.
as long as … 含义2. 只要
= so long as
= provided
= on condition (that)
Anthropology was by definition impossible, as long as these distinctions between ourselves and the primitive, ourselves and the barbarian, ourselves and the pagan, held sway over people's minds.
So long as there's something to identify, we will give people their money back.
Bagrit dismissed the idea that computers would learn to 'think' for themselves and would 'rule the world', which people liked to believe in those days.
语法分析:
Bagrit dismissed the idea that（that... 同位语从句） computers would learn to 'think' for themselves and would "rule the world", which people liked to believe in those days（非限定性定语从句）.
知识点（1）
dismiss v. 含义1. to remove someone from their job 解雇，辞退
The poor girl was dismissed instantly.
dismiss v. 含义2. to refuse to consider sb’s idea, opinion etc, because you think it is not serious, true, or important对……不予理会，对……不屑一顾
The government has dismissed criticisms that the country's health policy is a mess.
知识点（2）Lesson29、46
do sth. for oneself 亲自……，独立……
The following example of 'sick humour' will enable you to judge for yourself.
So great is our passion for doing things for ourselves, that we are becoming increasingly less dependent on specialized labour.
知识点（3）Lesson4、11、21
in those days 在当年，在当初
In those days, boxers fought with bare fists for Prize money.
these days 当今，现如今
These days, people who do manual work often receive far more money than clerks who work in offices.
Bagrit foresaw a time when computers would be small enough to hold in the hand, when they would be capable of providing information about traffic jams and suggesting alternative routes, when they would be used in hospitals to help doctors to diagnose illnesses, when they would relieve office workers and accountants of dull, repetitive clerical work.
语法分析:
Bagrit foresaw a time when computers would be small enough to hold in the hand（定语从句1）, when they would be capable of providing information about traffic jams and suggesting alternative routes（定语从句2）, when they would be used in hospitals to help doctors to diagnose illnesses（定语从句3）, when they would relieve office workers and accountants of dull, repetitive clerical work（定语从句4）.
知识点（1）Lesson42
foresee vt. (foresaw, foreseen) 预 见 ……
The disaster could not have been foreseen.
Few analysts foresaw that oil prices would rise so steeply.
The telephone rings and this marks the prelude to an unforeseen series of catastrophes.
foresight n. 远见，先见之明
They had the foresight to invest in new technology.
Such undertakings require the precise planning and foresight of military operations.
forethought n. 远虑，提前的思考
With a little forethought many accidents could be avoided.
forecast n. 预测，预报
weather forecast
foretell / predict v. 预言……
Precautions of this sort are necessary, for it is impossible to foretell the exact nature of the difficulties which will confront the pot-holer.
Considering how recent these developments are, it is even more remarkable that as long ago as the 1960s, an Englishman, Leon Bagrit, was able to predict some of the uses of computers which we know today.
Timely snow foretells （预示）a bumper harvest.
mark the prelude to sth. 预示…… 标志的…的序幕 （Lesson33）
The telephone rings and this marks the prelude to an unforeseen series of catastrophes.
知识点（2）
traffic jams 交通堵塞
= traffic congestion
知识点（3）
diagnose v. 诊断
The test is used to diagnose a variety of diseases.
diagnose sth. as … 把…诊断为某种病
The illness was diagnosed as cancer.
diagnose sb. as / with … 把某人诊断为患有…
She was diagnosed as / with having diabetes.
知识点（4）
relieve sb. of sth. 英文解释：to help sb. by taking sth. heavy or difficult from them 替某人做某事，使某人免于……
Let me relieve you of some of your bags.
The new secretary will relieve us of some of the paperwork.
知识点（5）
repetitive adj. 英文解释：done many times in the same way, and boring 重复性的
repetitive work / tasks / jobs
知识点（6）
clerk n. 含义1. person employed in an office, a shop, etc to keep records, accounts, etc. 文书；办事员；事务员
clerk n. 含义2. (AmE) assistant in a shop 店员，售货员
clerical adj. 英文解释：of, for or made by a clerk or clerks 文书或办事员的
routine clerical work
administrative and clerical staff
All these computer uses have become commonplace.
知识点（1）
commonplace adj. 英文解释：happening or existing in many places, and therefore not special or unusual 寻常的，司空见惯的，不足为奇的
Car thefts are commonplace in this part of town.
Computers are now commonplace in primary classrooms.
become commonplace 变得常见
Foreign vacations have become commonplace.
regard sth. as commonplace 把…看做不足为奇的事情
Such actions were regarded as commonplace during the war.
Of course, Leon Bagrit couldn't possibly have foreseen the development of the Internet, the worldwide system that enables us to communicate instantly with anyone in any part of the world by using computers linked to telephone networks.
语法分析:
Of course, Leon Bagrit could not possibly have foreseen the development of the Internet, the worldwide system that enables us to communicate instantly with anyone in any part of the world by using computers linked to telephone networks（介词短语引导方式状语）. （that ...定语从句，修饰system）
知识点（1）
can’t / couldn’t possibly … 英文解释：used to emphasize that you cannot do sth., or that sth. cannot or could not happen or be done（强调）不能或不可能……
I can't possibly allow you to go home in this weather.
She couldn't possibly have heard what was said.
【辨析】【复习】Lesson39
possibly 经常与 can / could 连用以表示“尽全力”的意思，后跟动词时常用can / could possibly + 动词，后省略动词时常用 possibly can / could。
No matter what the conditions were, he believed that a car should be driven as fast as it could possibly go. （前后动词不一致，不可省略）
She's done everything she could possibly think of to help. （前后动词不一致，不可省略）
We shall be contributing as much as we possibly can to the campaign.
Doctors did everything they possibly could to save his life.
造句：无论在任何情况下，他都认为一个人应该尽可能地为社会做出贡献。
No matter what the conditions were, He believed that a person should contribute as much as he possibly could to society.
造句：无论在任何情况下，他都认为一个人应该为社会做出他能想到的尽可能多的贡献。
No matter what the conditions were, He believed that a person should make as many contributions as he could possibly think of to society.
知识点（2）
… to communicate instantly with anyone …
instant communication 即时交流沟通
IM (instant messaging) 英文解释： a type of service available on the Internet that allows you to quickly exchange written messages with people that you know 即时通讯
Nor could he have foreseen how we could use the Internet to obtain information on every known subject, so we can read it on a screen in our homes and even print it as well if we want to.
语法分析:
Nor（部分倒装） could he have foreseen how we could use the Internet to obtain information on every known subject（宾语从句）, so we can read it on a screen in our homes and even print it as well if we want to（条件状语从句）. （so …can 目的状语从句）
知识点（1）
语法：部分倒装
Nor is the city without its moments of beauty.
Computers have become smaller and smaller, more and more powerful and cheaper and cheaper.
知识点（1）
语法：比较级，表示“越来越”
1.两个比较级连用
smaller and smaller
cheaper and cheaper
2.more and more 修饰
more and more powerful
3.副词修饰
increasingly powerful
ever more powerful
This is what makes Leon Bagrit's predictions particularly remarkable.
语法分析:
This is what makes Leon Bagrit's predictions particularly remarkable（表语从句）.
If he, or someone like him, were alive today, he might be able to tell us what to expect in the next 50 years.
语法分析:
If he, or someone like him, were（虚拟语气） alive today（条件状语从句）, he might be able to tell us what to expect in the next 50 years.
知识点（1）Lesson38
语法：“疑问词 + to do”可以视为名词性从句的缩略形式
1、相当于宾语从句
They will hardly know which facts to select from …
相当于： They will hardly know which facts they should select from …
I don’t know what to do.
相当于： I don’t know what I should do.
I haven't decided whether to sell it or not.
相当于： I haven't decided whether I should sell it or not.
Have you settled where to go?
相当于：Have you settled where you should go?
2、相当于主语从句
Who to turn to is what she wants to know.
相当于：Who she should turn to is what she wants to know.
3、相当于表语从句
The problem she faces is which way to take.
相当于：The problem she faces is which way she should take.
4、相当于同位语从句
The problem which course to take worried Lucy for hours.
相当于：The problem which course she should take worried Lucy for hours.